United States presidential election, 1988

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1984 Image:Flag of the United States.svg 1992
United States presidential election, 1988
8 November 1988
Image:43 George H.W. Bush 3x4.jpg Image:Dukakis1988rally.jpg
Nominee George H. W. Bush Michael Dukakis
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Texas Massachusetts
Running mate Dan Quayle Lloyd Bentsen
Electoral vote 426 111
States carried 40 10+D.C.
Popular vote 48,886,597 41,809,476
Percentage 53.4% 45.6%


Image:ElectoralCollege1988-Large.png

Presidential election results map. Red denotes states won by Bush/Quayle, Blue denotes those won by Dukakis/Bentsen. Light grey is the electoral vote for Lloyd Bentsen (and Dukakis for V.P.) by a West Virginia faithless elector. Numbers indicate the number of electoral votes allotted to each state.

Incumbent
Ronald Reagan
Republican

Successor
Bill Clinton
Democratic

The United States presidential election of 1988 featured an open primary for both major parties. Ronald Reagan, the incumbent President, was vacating the position after serving the maximum two terms allowed by the Twenty-second Amendment. Reagan's Vice President, George Bush, won the Republican nomination, while the Democrats nominated Michael Dukakis, Governor of Massachusetts. Bush capitalized on Reagan's popularity while Dukakis's campaign suffered from several miscues; the result was a third consecutive lopsided Republican presidential election victory.

Contents

[edit] Nominations

[edit] Democratic Party nomination

Having been badly defeated in the 1984 presidential election, the Democrats were eager to find a new approach to win the presidency. They felt more optimistic this time due to the continuing Iran Contra scandal plus the large gains in the 1986 mid-term election which resulted in the Democrats taking back control of the Senate after six years of Republican rule.

In early 1987, Senator Gary Hart was the clear frontrunner in the field (Democratic party efforts to recruit New York Governor Mario Cuomo aside). Hart had put in a strong showing in the 1984 presidential election, and had refined his campaign in the intervening years.

However, questions about extramarital affairs dogged the charismatic candidate. One of the great myths is that Senator Hart challenged the media to 'put a tail' on him. In actuality, the Miami Herald had received an anonymous tip from a friend of Donna Rice's that Rice was involved with Hart. It was only after Hart had been discovered that the Herald reporters found Hart's quote in a copy of New York Times magazine. On May 8, 1987, a week after the Donna Rice story broke, Hart dropped out of the race. In December of 1987, Hart returned to the race. However, the damage had been done.

Senator Edward M. Kennedy of Massachusetts had been considered a potential candidate, but he ruled himself out of the 1988 campaign in the fall of 1985. Two other politicians mentioned as possible candidates, both from Arkansas, didn't join the race: Senator Dale Bumpers and Governor (and future President) Bill Clinton (Clinton said in 2007 he changed his mind the day before he was to announce a run).

Joseph Biden's campaign also ended in controversy after the Delaware Senator was accused of plagiarizing a speech by Neil Kinnock, then-leader of the British Labour Party. Though Biden had correctly credited the original author in all speeches but one, the one where he failed to make mention of the originator was caught on video. In the video Biden is filmed repeating a stump speech by Kinnock, with only minor modifications. This would lead him to drop out of the race. Dukakis later revealed that his campaign was responsible for leaking the tape, and two members of his staff resigned. The Delaware Supreme Court's Board on Professional Responsibility would later clear Biden of the law school plagiarism charges.[1]

[edit] Primaries

In the Iowa caucuses, Gephardt won, Simon finished second, and Dukakis finished third. In the New Hampshire primary, Dukakis shot to first, Gephardt dropped to second, and Simon slid to third. Dukakis and Gore campaigned hard against Gephardt with negative ads, and eventually the United Auto Workers retracted its endorsement of Gephardt, who was heavily dependent on labor union backing.

In the Super Tuesday races, Dukakis won six primaries, Gore five, Jackson five and Gephardt one, with Gore and Jackson splitting the Southern states. The next week, Simon won Illinois. 1988 remains the race with the most candidates winning primaries since the McGovern reforms of 1971. Dukakis eventually emerged as the winner, with Gore's effort to paint Dukakis as too liberal for the general election being unsuccessful and causing him to withdraw. Jackson focused more on getting enough delegates to make sure African-American interests were represented in the platform than on winning.[2]

[edit] Primaries popular vote results

A total number of popular votes primaries by candidate[3]

[edit] Notable endorsements

Michael Dukakis

Jesse Jackson

Al Gore

Dick Gephardt'

[edit] Convention

The Democratic Party Convention was held in Atlanta, Georgia July 18 - 21. The Dukakis nominating speech delivered by Arkansas governor Bill Clinton was widely criticized as too long and tedious.[33]

Texas State Treasurer Ann Richards (who two years later became the state governor) delivered a memorable keynote address in which she uttered the lines "Poor George [Bush], he can't help it, he was born with a silver foot in his mouth." Six years later, Bush's son George W. Bush would deny Richards re-election as Texas Governor.

With most candidates having withdrawn and asking their delegates to vote for Dukakis, the tally for president was as follows:

Jesse Jackson's campaign believed, that since they had come a respectable second, they were entitled to the vice presidential spot. Dukakis refused, and gave the spot to Lloyd Bentsen.

Bentsen was selected in large part to secure the state of Texas and its large electoral vote for the Democrats. Because of Bentsen's status of something of an elder statesman who was more experienced in elected politics, many believed Dukakis' selection of Bentsen as his running mate was a mistake in that Bentsen, number two on the ticket, appeared more "presidential" than did Dukakis. During the vice-presidential debate, Republican candidate and Senator Dan Quayle ignored a head-on confrontation with Bentsen (aside from the "Jack Kennedy" comparison) and spent his time attacking Dukakis.

Among the field of candidates were the following:

[edit] Republican Party nomination

Vice President George H. W. Bush had the support of President Ronald Reagan, and pledged to continue Reagan's policies, but also pledged a "kinder and gentler nation" in an attempt to win over some more moderate voters.

There nevertheless emerged a few challengers for the nomination. Because of this there are following candidates to the GOP nomination:

Bush unexpectedly came in third in the Iowa caucus (that he had won back in 1980), behind winner Dole and Robertson. Dole was also leading in the polls of the New Hampshire primary, and the Bush camp responded by running television commercials portraying Dole as a tax raiser, while Governor John H. Sununu stumped for Bush. These efforts enabled the Vice President to defeat Dole and gain crucial momentum. After his loss Dole was bitter about his defeat, going on TV to tell Bush to "stop lying about my record."[34]

Once the multiple-state primaries such as Super Tuesday began, Bush's organizational strength and fundraising lead were impossible for the other candidates to match, and the nomination was his. The Republican party convention was held in New Orleans, Louisiana. Bush was nominated unanimously. Bush selected U.S. Senator Dan Quayle of Indiana as his running mate.

In his acceptance speech, Bush made an energetic pledge, "Read my lips: No new taxes", a comment that would come to haunt him in the 1992 elections.

[edit] Primaries popular vote results

Total number of votes in primaries by candidate[35]

[edit] Notable endorsements

George H. W. Bush

Bob Dole

Jack Kemp

[edit] Other nominations

[edit] General election

[edit] Campaign

During the election, the Bush campaign sought to portray Governor Dukakis as a "Massachusetts liberal" who was unreasonably left-wing. Dukakis was attacked for such positions as opposing mandatory recitation of the Pledge of Allegiance in schools, as well as being a "card carrying member of the ACLU" (a statement made by Dukakis concerning himself early in the primary campaign). Dukakis countered by saying that he was a "proud liberal" and that the phrase should stop being a bad word in America. The Dukakis camp tried to tie Bush to some of the recent scandals of the Reagan Administration, such as Iran-Contra, and argued that Republicans were too hawkish on foreign policy.

Image:Michael Dukakis in tank.jpg
Michael Dukakis on tank

Governor Dukakis attempted to quell criticism that he was ignorant on military matters by staging a photo op in which he drove an M1 Abrams tank outside a General Dynamics plant in Sterling Heights, Michigan.[51] The move ended up being a massive public relations blunder, with many mocking Dukakis's appearance as he stuck his smiling, helmeted head out of the tank's entrance portal to wave to the crowd. Footage of Dukakis was used by the Bush campaign as evidence he would not make a good commander-in-chief, and "Dukakis in the tank"--or the "Snoopy Incident"--remains shorthand for backfired public relations outings.[52]

Image:Dukakis1988rally.jpg
Michael Dukakis at a campaign rally at UCLA's Pauley Pavilion on the eve of the 1988 election.

Bush's running mate was Senator Dan Quayle. Quayle was chosen to appeal to a younger generation of Americans and his good looks were praised by Senator John McCain, who said "I can't believe a guy that handsome wouldn't have some impact."[53] Quayle was not a seasoned politician, however, and had a continual habit of making embarrassing statements. The Dukakis team in return blasted Quayle's credentials, saying he was dangerously inexperienced to be first-in-line to the presidency.[54]

During the Vice Presidential debate, Quayle attempted to dispel such allegations by comparing his experience with that of former Senator John F. Kennedy, who had also been a young political rookie when running for the presidency. During the Vice Presidential debate, Quayle said, "I have as much experience in the Congress as Jack Kennedy did when he sought the presidency." (Kennedy had served fourteen years in Congress to Quayle's twelve.) Dukakis' running mate, Lloyd Bentsen, responded, "Senator, I served with Jack Kennedy. I knew Jack Kennedy. Jack Kennedy was a friend of mine. Senator, you're no Jack Kennedy."[55]

Quayle responded, "That was really uncalled for, Senator," to which Bentsen said, "You are the one that was making the comparison, Senator, and I'm one who knew him well. And frankly I think you are so far apart in the objectives you choose for your country that I did not think the comparison was well-taken."

Quayle's reaction to Bentsen's comment was played and replayed by the Democrats in their subsequent television ads as an announcer intoned: "Quayle: just a heartbeat away." Despite much press about the Kennedy comments, this did not derail the Bush-Quayle lead. Quayle had sought to use the debate to criticize Dukakis as too liberal rather than go point for point with the more seasoned Bentsen. Bentsen's attempts to defend Dukakis received little recognition as greater attention given to his Kennedy comparison.

Dukakis' campaign suffered a setback when staff member Donna Brazile resigned after she spread rumors that Bush was having an extramarital affair with Jennifer Fitzgerald, who had been his secretary throughout the 1970s (the relationship of George H.W. Bush and Jennifer Fitzgerald would be briefly rehashed during the 1992 campaign).[56][57]

The most controversial criticism against Dukakis involved his support for a prison furlough program, which had begun before he was governor, that resulted in the release of convicted murderer Willie Horton, who committed a rape and assault in Maryland after being furloughed. The program was abolished by the state legislature in April 1988 after public outcry over the Willie Horton furlough. As Governor, Dukakis had actually vetoed a 1976 plan to bar inmates convicted of first-degree murder from the furlough program. Dukakis was badly hurt by the Republican "Willie Horton", "Revolving Door" and "Boston Harbor" campaign ads, which attacked the governor's failure to clean up environmental pollution in the harbor.

A number of false rumors were reported in the media about Dukakis, including the claim by Idaho Republican Senator Steve Symms that Dukakis's wife Kitty had burned an American flag to protest the Vietnam War, as well as the claim that Dukakis himself had been treated for a mental illness. Lee Atwater was accused of having floating these rumors.[58]

Although Dukakis did well in the first presidential debate, Bush seemed to score a triumph in the second debate, with a Gallup Poll giving him a 49-43 lead.[59] Before the second debate, Dukakis had been suffering from the flu and spent quite a bit of the day in bed. His performance was poor and played to his reputation as being cold. The most memorable moment came when reporter Bernard Shaw asked Dukakis whether he would support the death penalty if his wife were raped and murdered. Dukakis's answer analyzed the statistical ineffectiveness of capital punishment. Several commentators thought the question itself was unfair, in that it injected an irrelevant emotional element into the discussion of a policy issue, but many observers felt Dukakis' answer lacked the normal emotions one would expect of a person asked about a loved one's rape and death.[60] Tom Brokaw of NBC reported on his October 14 newscast: "The consensus tonight is that Vice President George Bush won last night's debate and made it all the harder for Governor Michael Dukakis to catch and pass him in the 25 days remaining. In all of the Friday morning quarterbacking, there was common agreement that Dukakis failed to seize the debate and make it his night."

[edit] Results

Image:George H. W. Bush inauguration.jpg
Chief Justice William Rehnquist administering the oath of office to President George H. W. Bush January 20, 1989.

The election on November 8, 1988 was a majority for Bush in the popular vote and a lopsided majority (40 states) in the Electoral College.

Bush performed very strongly among suburban voters, perhaps owing to his campaign themes of law and order, punctuated by his criticisms of the Massachusetts furlough program. This was a boon in several swing states. In Illinois, Bush won 69% in DuPage County and 63% out of Lake County, suburban areas which adjoin Chicago's Cook County. In Pennsylvania, Bush swept the group of suburban counties that surround Philadelphia, including Bucks, Delaware, Chester, and Montgomery. Bush also won most of the counties in Maryland, perhaps fallout from the fact that Willie Horton committed his infamous criminal acts there. New Jersey, known at the time for its many suburban voters and its moderate Republicanism, went easily for Bush; Bush also gained victory for attacking Dukakis' furlough program he had while he was Governor of Massachusetts [1], though Dukakis still maintained popularity in Massachusetts.

Contrary to the suburbs was the decrease among rural counties, easily falling below the support they gave Reagan in 1980 and 1984. In Illinois, Bush lost a number of downstate counties that previously went for Reagan. He lost the state of Iowa by a surprisingly wide margin, losing counties all across the state even in traditionally Republican areas. The rural state of West Virginia remained handily in the Democratic column. Bush also performed weaker in the northern counties of Missouri, making the state a close win. Three typically solid Republican states, Kansas, South Dakota, and Montana, came much closer than usual. The farm states had fared poorly during farm recession of the 1980s. It is not surprising that the Democrat Dukakis was the beneficiary of these farm problems in America's heartland.

Bush's greatest area of strength was in the south, winning most states by wide margins. He also performed very well in the northeast, winning Maine (where he had a residence), New Hampshire (at the time a Republican stronghold), Vermont (at the time a bastion of moderate Republicanism), and Connecticut (where his father had been a senator). Bush lost New York by a margin of just over 4 percent. He also won Delaware, at the time a swing state. Despite the presence of Lloyd Bentsen on the Democratic ticket (and other Texans getting prominent roles at the Democratic convention), Bush won the Lone Star State by a convincing margin. He lost the Pacific northwestern states but kept California in the Republican column for the sixth straight time, albeit by a smaller margin than Reagan had had.

Although his victory was not a landslide in the popular vote (though it was substantial), Bush in 1988 was the last Republican to carry certain states which have since gained a reputation as "blue states" that favor the Democratic Party in presidential elections. These states are California, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Vermont, Maryland, New Jersey, Illinois, Connecticut, Maine, and Michigan. New Mexico used to be in this category, but George W. Bush won it in 2004, making him the first Republican to carry it since 1988.

Overall, Bush's relatively big win (at least in the electoral college) can be attributed to general satisfaction with the status quo in the country, giving the Republican Party its third consecutive presidential win. Reagan's popularity and Bush's position as Vice President did more to help his cause than any great dissatisfaction with Dukakis. Bush had essentially no coattails, and he came into office with a Democratic Congress angry and vindictive after all the negative campaign he ran against Dukakis. Even though the Democrats may have lost their presidential bid they were able to strengthen their majorities in Congress.

[edit] Statistics

Presidential Candidate Party Home State Popular Vote Electoral Vote Running Mate Running Mate's
Home State
Running Mate's
Electoral Vote
Count Percentage
George H. W. Bush Republican Texas 48,886,597 53.4% 426 James Danforth Quayle Indiana 426
Michael S. Dukakis Democratic Massachusetts 41,809,476 45.6% 111 Lloyd M. Bentsen Texas 111
Lloyd M. Bentsen Democratic Texas (a) (a) 1 Michael S. Dukakis Massachusetts 1
Ronald E. Paul Libertarian Texas 431,750 0.5% 0 Andre V. Marrou Alaska 0
Lenora Fulani New Alliance   217,221 0.2% 0 (b) 0
Other 249,642 0.3% 0 Other 0
Total 91,594,686 100.0% 538 Total 538
Needed to win 270 Needed to win 270

Source (Popular Vote): Leip, David. 1988 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections (August 7, 2005).

Source (Electoral Vote): Electoral College Box Scores 1789–1996. Official website of the National Archives. (August 7, 2005).

(a) West Virginia faithless elector Margaret Leach voted for Bentsen as President and Dukakis as Vice President in order to make a statement against the U.S. Electoral College.
(b) Fulani's running mate varied from state to state.[61] Among the six vice presidential candidates were Joyce Dattner, Harold Moore,[62] and somebody with the last name of “Burke”.[63]

[edit] Close states

Red-colored states were won by Bush, blue by Dukakis.

  1. Washington, 1.59%
  2. Illinois, 2.09%
  3. Pennsylvania, 2.31%
  4. Maryland, 2.91%
  5. Vermont, 3.52%
  6. California, 3.57%
  7. Wisconsin, 3.61%
  8. Missouri, 3.98%
  9. Oregon, 4.67%
  10. New Mexico, 4.96%

[edit] References

  • James B. Lemert, William R. Elliott, James M. Bernstein, William L. Rosenberg, Karl J. Nestvold; News Verdicts, the Debates, and Presidential Campaigns Praeger Publishers, 1991
  • Laurence W. Moreland, Robert P. Steed, Tod A. Baker; The 1988 Presidential Election in the South: Continuity Amidst Change in Southern Party Politics Praeger Publishers, 1991
  • David R. Runkel; Campaign for President: The Managers Look at '88 Auburn House, 1989
  • Guido H. Stempel III and John W. Windhauser; The Media in the 1984 and 1988 Presidential Campaigns Greenwood Press, 1991

[edit] See also

[edit] Notes

  1. ^ "Professional Board Clears Biden In Two Allegations of Plagiarism", The New York Times, May 29, 1989, p. 29. 
  2. ^ Williams, Juan. "Waiting for The Jackson Reaction; Will Jesse End His Crusade With a Bang or a Whimper?", The Washington Post, July 17, 1988, p. C1. 
  3. ^ http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=55210
  4. ^ http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=55210
  5. ^ http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=55210
  6. ^ http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=55210
  7. ^ http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=264289
  8. ^ http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=55210
  9. ^ http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=55210
  10. ^ http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=34462
  11. ^ http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=264118
  12. ^ http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=264118
  13. ^ http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=264118
  14. ^ http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=34462
  15. ^ http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=55210
  16. ^ http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=35514
  17. ^ http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=37471
  18. ^ http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=55210
  19. ^ http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=55210
  20. ^ http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=264111
  21. ^ http://www.ourcampaigns.com/CandidateDetail.html?CandidateID=4921
  22. ^ http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=34053
  23. ^ http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=34462
  24. ^ http://www.ourcampaigns.com/CandidateDetail.html?CandidateID=75094
  25. ^ http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=34053
  26. ^ http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=55210
  27. ^ http://www.ourcampaigns.com/CandidateDetail.html?CandidateID=151179
  28. ^ http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=55210
  29. ^ http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=264118
  30. ^ http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=264118
  31. ^ http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=264118
  32. ^ http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=264118
  33. ^ Brummert, John. "I just fell on my sword", Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, July 22, 1988. 
  34. ^ Dillin, John. "Even with win, Bush seen to be vulnerable", Christian Science Monitor, February 18, 1988, p. 1. 
  35. ^ http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=55211
  36. ^ http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=55211
  37. ^ http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=36411
  38. ^ http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=55211
  39. ^ http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=36411
  40. ^ http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=35948
  41. ^ http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=55211
  42. ^ http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=55211
  43. ^ http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=36411
  44. ^ http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=35948
  45. ^ http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=35948
  46. ^ http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=264091
  47. ^ http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=55211
  48. ^ http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=36411
  49. ^ http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=36411
  50. ^ http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=264113
  51. ^ Bradlee, Ben, Jr.; Fred Kaplan. "Dukakis spells out Soviet policy", The Boston Globe, September 14, 1988. 
  52. ^ Safire, William. "Rat-Tat-Tatting", The New York Times, September 15, 1988, p. A35. ;Dowd, Maureen. "Bush Talks of Lasers and Bombers", The New York Times, September 17, 1988, p. 8. 
  53. ^ Mapes, Jeff. "Bush taps Quayle for VP", The Oregonian, August 17, 1988, p. A01. 
  54. ^ Toner, Robin. "Quayle Reflects Badly on Bush, Dukakis Asserts", The New York Times, October 7, 1988, p. B6. 
  55. ^ Dan Quayle in the Vice Presidential Debate (HTML and audio file). The History Channel: Video and Speeches. A&E Television Networks. Retrieved on March 17, 2004.
  56. ^ Conason, Joe (July/August 1992). "Reason No. 1 Not To Vote For George Bush: He Cheats on His Wife." Spy magazine.
  57. ^ Kurtz, Howard (August 12, 1992). "Bush Angrily Denounces Report of Extramarital Affair as 'a Lie.'" Washington Post.
  58. ^ Editors (August 26, 1988) "Story on Mrs. Dukakis Is Denied by Campaign." New York Times.
  59. ^ "Bush Edge Is Holding In Survey", The New York Times, October 23, 1988, p. 24. 
  60. ^ Hirshson, Paul. "Editors on Dukakis: Down, but not out", The Boston Globe, October 19, 1988, p. 29. 
  61. ^ Athitakis, Mark. "Booty Call", SF Weekly, Village Voice Media, 1999-08-11. Retrieved on 2006-03-21. 
  62. ^ Fulani, Lenora (1992). The Making of a Fringe Candidate, 127. 
  63. ^ Political Party History in Alaska. Internet Archive copy of official website of Alaska Division of Elections (2003). Retrieved on March 24, 2006.

[edit] External links

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